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Lightning vs. Kings prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Thursday's NHL matchup [1/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Los Angeles Kings predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Los Angeles Kings will square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Crypto.com Arena on New Year's Day, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Lightning-Kings matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Lightning vs. Kings matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Kings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Lightning and Kings 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both the Lightning and Kings a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Kings odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+205) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -125 |
| Total | o5.5 (-110) | u5.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Kings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | +108 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning to win.
Lightning vs. Kings player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Kings?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Kings.
Our projections give Guentzel a 38.3% chance of scoring a goal at Crypto.com Arena, while the star is a 7.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 38.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 32.9% |
| Brayden Point | 32.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 30.8% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 18.6% |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe | 31.7% |
| Kevin Fiala | 30.6% |
| Alex Laferriere | 25.8% |
| Quinton Byfield | 25.5% |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 21.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.2% |
| Brayden Point | 6.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.5% |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala | 6.3% |
| Adrian Kempe | 6.1% |
| Quinton Byfield | 5.2% |
| Alex Laferriere | 5.0% |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 4.1% |
Lightning vs. Kings game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Kings and Lightning at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Los Angeles Kings
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Lightning and Kings on New Year's Day, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Kings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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