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Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Game 3 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Friday.
The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will lock horns in Game 3 of the NHL Playoffs at Bell Centre on Friday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Canadiens Game 3 matchup.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win Game 3?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NHL Playoffs game between the Lightning and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 52% chance of defeating the Canadiens in Game 3 of the series.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 3 odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+200) | +1.5 (-235) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +102 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet for Game 3
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | +102 |
| Total | Over 6 | -110 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Caufield a 40.7% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 40.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.2% |
| Brayden Point | 35.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24.2% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 40.7% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 27.3% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 26.5% |
| Alex Newhook | 23.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.3% |
| Brayden Point | 7.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.0% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.7% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.5% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.3% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.6% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.2% |
Lightning vs. Habs Game 3 updates and essential details
Friday's Game 3 between the Canadiens and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Lightning and Canadiens, reached the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Friday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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