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Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Friday's NHL matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Friday.
The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the NHL Playoffs at Bell Centre on Friday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Canadiens.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Lightning and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 51% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Canadiens odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+225) | +1.5 (-260) |
| Moneyline | -114 | -105 |
| Total | o5.5 (-110) | u5.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +225 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -114 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Caufield a 41.8% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is a 9.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 39.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 38.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.9% |
| Brayden Point | 33.8% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 25.2% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 41.8% |
| Nick Suzuki | 30.2% |
| Ivan Demidov | 27.0% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 26.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 25.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.6% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.6% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.2% |
| Brayden Point | 6.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.2% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 9.1% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.5% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 5.1% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.7% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.6% |
Lightning vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Canadiens, made the NHL Playoffs 2026, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Friday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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