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Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Game 4 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Montreal Canadiens will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Bell Centre on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Canadiens Game 4 matchup.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Lightning and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 51% chance of defeating the Canadiens in Game 4 of the series.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 4 odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+215) | +1.5 (-250) |
| Moneyline | -115 | -102 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +215 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | -102 |
| Total | Over 6 | -110 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Caufield a 40.1% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.2% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 37.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.9% |
| Brayden Point | 33.5% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.4% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 40.1% |
| Nick Suzuki | 28.1% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 26.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 26.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 23.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.2% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.6% |
| Brayden Point | 6.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.8% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.2% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.2% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 5.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.6% |
Lightning vs. Habs Game 4 updates and essential details
Sunday's Game 4 between the Canadiens and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the NHL's postseason elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Canadiens, made the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Sunday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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