Lightning vs. Islanders prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/13/2025]

The NY Islanders will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at UBS Arena on Saturday, starting at 3:30PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Islanders game.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Islanders 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 55% chance of defeating the Islanders.

According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 54% chance of going over.

Lightning vs. Islanders odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Islanders
Puck Line	-1.5 (+185)	+1.5 (-210)
Moneyline	-130	+112
Total	o5.5 (-124)	u5.5 (+114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Islanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Islanders +1.5	-210
Moneyline	Lightning	-130
Total	Under 5.5	+114

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 5.5 total goals.

Lightning vs. Islanders player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Islanders?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Islanders.

Our projections give Guentzel a 38.1% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is a 7.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	38.1%
Nikita Kucherov	37.0%
Brandon Hagel	34.0%
Brayden Point	33.0%
Anthony Cirelli	23.2%

NY Islanders

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Anders Lee	27.1%
Mathew Barzal	26.8%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	23.5%
Max Shabanov	23.2%
Simon Holmstrom	23.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	7.8%
Nikita Kucherov	7.1%
Brandon Hagel	7.1%
Brayden Point	6.8%
Anthony Cirelli	4.0%

NY Islanders

Player	First Goal Probability
Mathew Barzal	5.0%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	4.5%
Anders Lee	4.5%
Simon Holmstrom	4.1%
Max Shabanov	4.0%

Lightning vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Islanders and Lightning at UBS Arena is scheduled to begin at 3:30PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. NY Islanders
• Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
• Time: 3:30PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: UBS Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Islanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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