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Lightning vs. Flyers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [1/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers predictions for NHL Monday.
The Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the NHL at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Monday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Flyers game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Flyers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL game between the Lightning and Flyers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 58% chance of beating the Flyers.
According to our model, the Flyers (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 58% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Flyers odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+172) | +1.5 (-198) |
| Moneyline | -144 | +124 |
| Total | o5.5 (-135) | u5.5 (+114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Flyers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +172 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -144 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -135 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Flyers player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Flyers?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Flyers.
Our projections give Guentzel a 37.9% chance of scoring a goal at Xfinity Mobile Arena, while the star is a 7.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 37.9% |
| Brayden Point | 35.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 33.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 22.3% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | 33.8% |
| Owen Tippett | 28.8% |
| Carl Grundstrom | 28.1% |
| Matvei Michkov | 27.3% |
| Christian Dvorak | 19.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.6% |
| Brayden Point | 7.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.3% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras | 6.9% |
| Owen Tippett | 5.5% |
| Carl Grundstrom | 5.3% |
| Matvei Michkov | 4.9% |
| Noah Cates | 2.9% |
Lightning vs. Flyers game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Flyers and Lightning at Xfinity Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers
- Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Flyers on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Flyers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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