Lightning vs. Flyers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [1/10/2026]

The Philadelphia Flyers will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Saturday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Flyers game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Flyers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Flyers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 60% chance of defeating the Flyers.

According to our model, the Flyers (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.

Lightning vs. Flyers odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Flyers
Puck Line	-1.5 (+140)	+1.5 (-155)
Moneyline	-176	+155
Total	o6 (-105)	u6 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Flyers picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Flyers +1.5	-155
Moneyline	Flyers	+155
Total	Over 6	-105

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6 total goals.

Lightning vs. Flyers player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Flyers?

According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Flyers.

Our projections give Point a 36.1% chance of scoring a goal at Xfinity Mobile Arena, while the star is a 6.6% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brayden Point	36.1%
Jake Guentzel	35.0%
Brandon Hagel	33.5%
Nikita Kucherov	33.1%
Anthony Cirelli	21.5%

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Trevor Zegras	34.0%
Owen Tippett	28.9%
Matvei Michkov	26.8%
Carl Grundstrom	25.6%
Christian Dvorak	19.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	6.6%
Brayden Point	6.6%
Brandon Hagel	6.6%
Nikita Kucherov	6.4%
Anthony Cirelli	4.2%

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	First Goal Probability
Trevor Zegras	6.3%
Owen Tippett	5.0%
Carl Grundstrom	5.0%
Matvei Michkov	4.9%
Christian Dvorak	3.4%

Lightning vs. Flyers game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Flyers and Lightning at Xfinity Mobile Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers
• Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Flyers on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Flyers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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