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Lightning vs. Penguins prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [1/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins predictions for NHL Tuesday.
NHL action continues on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Penguins game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Lightning and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 57% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 57% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Penguins odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+185) | +1.5 (-210) |
| Moneyline | -140 | +124 |
| Total | o6 (-118) | u6 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Penguins picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +185 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -140 |
| Total | Over 6 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Penguins player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Guentzel a 38.3% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 7.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 38.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 36.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 22.3% |
| Darren Raddysh | 20.7% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 34.5% |
| Sidney Crosby | 32.4% |
| Rickard Rakell | 28.9% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 24.0% |
| Thomas Novak | 20.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 7.6% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.8% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.9% |
| Gage Goncalves | 3.2% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 6.3% |
| Bryan Rust | 6.0% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.6% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 4.5% |
| Thomas Novak | 3.6% |
Lightning vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Penguins and Lightning at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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