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Lightning vs. Sharks prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [1/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs San Jose Sharks predictions for NHL Saturday.
The San Jose Sharks will take on the favored Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at SAP Center at San Jose on Saturday, starting at 4:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Sharks game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Sharks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Lightning and Sharks 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 64% chance of defeating the Sharks.
According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Sharks odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+120) | +1.5 (-140) |
| Moneyline | -210 | +180 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Sharks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Sharks +1.5 | -140 |
| Moneyline | Sharks | +180 |
| Total | Under 6 | -105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Sharks to win.
Lightning vs. Sharks player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Sharks?
According to our model, Macklin Celebrini is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Sharks.
Our projections give Celebrini a 42.0% chance of scoring a goal at SAP Center at San Jose, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 41.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 38.4% |
| Brayden Point | 37.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.0% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 42.0% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 30.1% |
| Igor Chernyshov | 25.1% |
| William Eklund | 23.8% |
| Pavol Regenda | 23.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.6% |
| Brayden Point | 7.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.5% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 8.6% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 5.3% |
| Igor Chernyshov | 4.9% |
| William Eklund | 4.5% |
| Pavol Regenda | 4.3% |
Lightning vs. Sharks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Sharks and Lightning at SAP Center at San Jose is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. San Jose Sharks
- Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
- Venue: SAP Center at San Jose
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Sharks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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