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Lightning vs. Kraken prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Seattle Kraken predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Seattle Kraken and Tampa Bay Lightning will lock horns in the NHL at Climate Pledge Arena on Tuesday, with puck drop at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Kraken game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Kraken prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Lightning and Kraken 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 60% chance of defeating the Kraken.
According to our model, the Kraken (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Kraken odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Kraken |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+136) | +1.5 (-155) |
| Moneyline | -190 | +160 |
| Total | o6.5 (+110) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Kraken picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Kraken +1.5 | -155 |
| Moneyline | Kraken | +160 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -125 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Kraken to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Kraken player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Kraken?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Kraken.
Our projections give Point a 38.4% chance of scoring a goal at Climate Pledge Arena, while the star is a 7.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 38.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.4% |
| Jake Guentzel | 35.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 28.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 22.4% |
Seattle Kraken
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bobby McMann | 30.3% |
| Jared McCann | 22.9% |
| Matty Beniers | 22.3% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 21.4% |
| Shane Wright | 20.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 7.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.3% |
| Jake Guentzel | 6.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.2% |
Seattle Kraken
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bobby McMann | 6.7% |
| Jared McCann | 4.3% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 3.9% |
| Shane Wright | 3.8% |
| Jordan Eberle | 3.4% |
Lightning vs. Kraken game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Kraken and Lightning at Climate Pledge Arena is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Seattle Kraken
- Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Kraken on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Kraken insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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