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Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions for MLB Monday.
MLB action continues on Monday at 7:07 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.09 ERA) to the mound, while the Rays have opted for Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 2.94 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Blue Jays as the most likely winner of the Rays vs. Blue Jays game.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Rays and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Blue Jays a 55% chance of defeating the Rays.
According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 55% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Blue Jays odds [5/11/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rays | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+176) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -126 |
| Total | o7 (-115) | u7 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Blue Jays -1.5 | +176 |
| Moneyline | Blue Jays | -126 |
| Total | Over 7 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Blue Jays and Rays at Rogers Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:07 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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