Tatjana Maria vs. Elise Mertens prediction, odds, picks for French Open 2026

Tatjana Maria will take on Elise Mertens in the first round of the French Open Women's Singles 2026 on Monday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Elise Mertens as the most likely winner of the Maria vs. Mertens match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Maria vs. Mertens prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Maria-Mertens women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Mertens a 91% chance of defeating Maria in the French Open 2026.

Additionally, Mertens has an 85% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Mertens (-6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 17.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Tatjana Maria vs. Elise Mertens odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maria	Mertens
Moneyline	+1100	-2000
First Set	+500	-833
Game Spread	+6.5 (-110)	-6.5 (-122)
Total Games	o17.5 (-130)	u17.5 (-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maria vs. Mertens picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Maria	+1100
First Set	Mertens	-130

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Tatjana Maria to win.

Although Maria is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maria vs. Mertens updates and essential details

The French Open 2026 match between Tatjana Maria and Elise Mertens is scheduled to start on Monday at 7:10 AM ET.

• Who: Tatjana Maria vs. Elise Mertens
• Date: Monday, May 25, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:10 AM ET/4:10AM PT
• Tournament: French Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: First round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Elise Mertens, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat Tatjana Maria at the French Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.