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Tennis best bets: ATP and WTA picks on Tuesday, February 24
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Looking for Tuesday's best tennis bets? We've got predictions and picks from the ATP Mexican Open in Acupulco, and the WTA Merida Open.
Today's best tennis best bets have been identified using elite in-house data science processes that unearth mis-priced sportsbook odds, resulting in our highly profitable best tennis bets.
Once again, we have an exciting array of tennis predictions scheduled for Tuesday, February 23, 2026, where we've also identified a number of solid tennis betting opportunities from this week's ATP Tour event at the Mexican Open and the Merida Open on the WTA Tour.
While the public often struggles to find an edge in tennis betting markets, the Dimers models have identified three tennis bets with significant value today.
While these tennis picks can also be bet straight up, we've combined them into a parlay targeting three specific game spread bets.
By combining these tennis betting picks we've transformed high-confidence data into a ticket with +611 odds, and our spirits are sky high after nailing this +605 odds tennis parlay recently, as well as a number of big tennis bets at January's Australian Open.
Here's the breakdown of the best tennis bets we've used to craft our three-leg tennis parlay at +611 odds.
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RELATED: How we beat the odds using tennis data
Tennis best bets: Picks for February 24
Bet 1: Heather Watson +5.5 Games (-132)
Tournament: Merida Open (Merida)
Matchup analysis: J. Bouzas Maneiro vs. H. Watson
Time: Feb 24, 4:30pm (ET)
We open today's best tennis bets on the WTA Tour in Merida. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is the favorite here, but she faces a highly experienced veteran in Heather Watson. The market has given Watson a very generous 5.5-game cushion, which feels overly inflated for a hard-court matchup where Watson’s flat baseline hitting remains highly effective.
Our model projects Watson staying within this 5.5-game spread 60.8% of the time, creating a solid 3.9% edge against the -132 odds.
Why Watson +5.5 games is the bet: Bouzas Maneiro has a bright future, but 5.5 games is a massive safety net in a WTA match. Watson doesn't need to pull off the outright upset to cash this leg; she simply needs to rely on her experience to extend sets and avoid a blowout. The data firmly supports the veteran keeping the scoreline tight.
Bet 2: Alexander Zverev -4.5 Games (+110)
Tournament: Mexican Open (Acapulco)
Matchup analysis: A. Zverev vs. C. Moutet
Time: Feb 24, 8:10pm (ET)
For the second bet, we head to Acapulco to back the sheer power of Alexander Zverev. He faces the always-unorthodox Corentin Moutet. While Moutet's tricky lefty game and drop shots can frustrate opponents, Zverev’s overwhelming serve and baseline weight-of-shot present a massive stylistic mismatch on a hard court. The fact that we are getting plus-money (+110) on a 4.5-game spread is tremendous value.
We assign a 55.9% probability to Zverev covering this number, offering a massive 8.3% edge.
Why Zverev -4.5 games is the bet: This is the highest-edge play on the board. Zverev's serve alone should keep Moutet at bay, meaning the German only needs a standard break per set (e.g., 6-3, 6-4) to cover. Finding an edge north of 8% at positive odds is exactly the type of play that makes this one of our tennis best bets.
Bet 3: Damir Dzumhur +2.5 Games (-108)
Tournament: Mexican Open (Acapulco)
Matchup: D. Dzumhur vs. G. Monfils
Time: Feb 24, 9:20pm (ET)
We close out today's tennis best bets under the lights with an intriguing matchup between Damir Dzumhur and Gael Monfils. Monfils is the bigger name and the rightful favorite, but his matches often feature ebbs and flows in focus and physical intensity. Dzumhur is a quintessential grinder who will force Monfils to work for every single point.
Our simulation sees Dzumhur covering the +2.5 spread 56.8% of the time, generating a 4.9% edge.
Why Dzumhur +2.5 games is the bet: A 2.5-game spread in this matchup is highly appealing. Dzumhur’s speed and defensive tenacity make him a frustrating opponent, and Monfils is prone to dropping tight sets (or even going the distance). By taking the points on the underdog, we add a highly reliable, data-backed anchor to safely close out our parlay today.
Tennis best bets for Tuesday
Tennis picks for February 24
Leg 1: Watson +5.5 (-132)
Leg 2: Zverev -4.5 (+110)
Leg 3: Dzumhur +2.5 (-108)
Parlay odds: +611
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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