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Tennis best bets: Mexican Open picks on Monday, February 23
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Looking for Monday's best tennis bets? We've got predictions and picks from the ATP Tour's Mexican Open in Acupulco.
Today's best tennis best bets have been identified using elite in-house data science processes that unearth mis-priced sportsbook odds, resulting in our highly profitable best tennis bets.
Once again, we have an exciting array of tennis predictions scheduled for Monday, February 23, 2026, where we've also identified a number of solid tennis betting opportunities from this week's ATP Tour event at the Mexican Open.
While the public often struggles to find an edge in tennis betting markets, the Dimers models have identified three tennis bets with significant value today.
While these tennis picks can also be bet straight up, we've combined them into a parlay targeting three specific game spread bets.
By combining these tennis betting picks we've transformed high-confidence data into a ticket with +564 odds, and our spirits are sky high after nailing this +605 odds tennis parlay recently, as well as a number of big tennis bets at January's Australian Open.
Here's the breakdown of the best tennis bets we've used to craft our three-leg tennis parlay at +564 odds.
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RELATED: How we beat the odds using tennis data
Tennis best bets: Picks for February 23
Leg 1: Daniel Altmaier +4.5 Games (+110)
Tournament: Mexican Open (Acapulco)
Matchup: D. Altmaier vs. A. Davidovich Fokina
Time: Feb 23, 7:00pm (ET)
We start our tennis bets with an intriguing clash of styles. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the clear favorite, but his aggressive, high-risk game can lead to erratic patches of play. Daniel Altmaier’s heavy one-handed backhand and defensive resilience make him exactly the type of opponent who can extend points and frustrate the Spaniard.
Our model projects Altmaier keeping this match within the 4.5-game spread 53.1% of the time, creating a highly valuable 5.5% edge at plus-money (+110).
Why Altmaier +4.5 is the bet: Getting 4.5 games on an underdog at positive odds is a fantastic situational play. Fokina rarely breezes through matches without dropping games - often due to unforced errors. We don't need Altmaier to pull off the upset; we simply need him to avoid a blowout, making this one of the smartest tennis bets of the evening session.
Leg 2: Schoolkate vs. Kecmanovic u22.5 (-125)
Tournament: Mexican Open (Acapulco)
Matchup: T. Schoolkate vs. M. Kecmanovic
Time: Feb 23, 7:00pm (ET)
For the second bet, we pivot to the Total Games market. Miomir Kecmanovic is an established ATP Tour regular taking on Australian Tristan Schoolkate, who is still trying to find consistent footing at this level. While the total is set at 22.5 games, our data points heavily toward a swift, straight-sets victory for the Serbian, making the Under a highly attractive play.
Our data assigns a 57.7% probability to the Under, which offers a solid 2.2% edge.
Why under 22.5 games is the bet: Kecmanovic's baseline consistency is a tough puzzle for younger players to solve. We anticipate the Serbian dictating the rallies and forcing Schoolkate into rushed errors. A routine straight-sets victory (e.g., 6-4, 6-4 or 6-3, 6-4) lands well below the 22.5 threshold. Betting the under here is a fantastic way to stabilize our parlay.
Leg 3: Valentin Vacherot -2.5 Games (-132)
Tournament: Mexican Open (Acapulco)
Matchup: V. Vacherot vs. C. Wong
Time: Feb 23, 9:20pm (ET)
We close out our tennis bet bets under the lights with Valentin Vacherot taking on Coleman Wong. Vacherot’s historic run last fall catapulted him into the ATP's elite, and the top-30 Monégasque star possesses the baseline power to dictate terms in this matchup. A spread of just -2.5 games essentially asks him to win the match and secure just one break of serve across two sets.
Our simulation sees Vacherot covering this number a massive 65.0% of the time, generating a towering 8.2% edge.
Why Vacherot -2.5 games is the bet: This is the best tennis bet on the board. Wong is a promising prospect, but Vacherot's physical maturity and weight-of-shot give him a distinct advantage in these conditions. The data strongly indicates that Vacherot will pull away, making this the perfect anchor to safely bring home our best parlay.
Tennis best bets for Monday
Tennis picks for February 23
Leg 1: Altmaier +4.5 (+110)
Leg 2: Schoolkate-Kecmanovic u22.5 games (-125)
Leg 3: Vacherot -2.5 (-132)
Parlay odds: +564
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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