Tennis bets today: Picks, predictions and odds for Madrid Open [Thursday]

The ATP and WTA tennis tours have officially transitioned on to the European clay, and this week our tennis predictions engine reaches new heights—literally—with the start of the Madrid Open. Unlike sea-level clay events, the high altitude in the Spanish capital makes the ball fly faster and bounce higher, rewarding big servers and aggressive ball-strikers.

The many data points behind our tennis predictor factors in these unique conditions and has isolated three tennis best bets—two generous spreads and one high-value total—where the sportsbooks have mispriced the lines.

If you are looking for Thursday's best tennis bets, this +436 ticket combines a massive underdog safety net, a calculated Under, and a rising star catching too many points.

ANALYSIS: How Dimers uses its world class tennis data model to beat the odds

Three high value tennis bets on Thursday [04/23/2026]

Bet: Peyton Stearns +7.5 Games (-146)

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Matchup: A. Sabalenka vs. P. Stearns

When: April 23, 8:10am (ET)

We open our tennis bets with an incredible value play on the WTA side. Aryna Sabalenka is a dominant force and thrives in the faster Madrid conditions, but the sportsbooks have simply gone too far by laying 7.5 games. Peyton Stearns brings increasing experience and a massive forehand that can hold its own, even against elite power.

Our data projects Stearns staying within this towering spread an overwhelming 75.6% of the time, creating a massive 16.3% edge against the -146 odds.

Why Stearns +7.5 games is the bet: This is the highest-edge play on the entire board. A 7.5-game spread requires Sabalenka to win with a wildly lopsided scoreline, such as 6-2, 6-2 (an 8-game margin), just to cover. If Stearns holds serve even a few times per set—say, losing 6-3, 6-2—she cashes the ticket. Grabbing this many points in a best-of-three match is the ultimate anchor for our parlay today.

Bet: N. Budkov Kjaer vs. R. Opelka Under 25.5 Games (-135)

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Matchup: N. Budkov Kjaer vs. R. Opelka

When: April 23, 9:40am (ET)

For the second bet, we pivot to the men's draw and the Total Games market. Reilly Opelka’s towering serve becomes even more lethal in the thin Madrid air, making him nearly impossible to break. He takes on young prospect Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. The sportsbooks have set the total at a very high 25.5 games, anticipating a match filled with tiebreaks.

We assign a 61.3% probability to this match staying Under the 25.5 total, offering a solid 3.8% edge.

Why the Under 25.5 games is the bet: For a best-of-three match to go Over 25.5 games, you almost certainly need a three-setter or two grueling tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6, 7-6 equals 26 games). If Opelka manages to secure just a single break of serve in one of the sets, a 7-6, 6-4 victory equals 23 games, cashing our Under with plenty of room to spare. Trusting the big-serving veteran to find a breakthrough makes this a smart, data-backed addition.

Bet: Petra Marcinko +5.5 Games (-112)

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Matchup: B. Bencic vs. P. Marcinko

When: April 23, 5:00am (ET)

We close out the ticket with another WTA matchup, backing the young Croatian talent Petra Marcinko against Belinda Bencic. Bencic is the rightful favorite, but Marcinko is exactly the type of gritty, up-and-coming player who can make life incredibly frustrating for established veterans on the dirt.

Our simulation sees Marcinko covering the +5.5 spread 61.0% of the time, generating a highly reliable 8.2% edge.

Why Marcinko +5.5 games is the bet: Giving a capable underdog 5.5 games on clay provides a fantastic safety net. Bencic relies heavily on taking the ball early and hitting flat, which is sometimes less effective on clay, even in faster Madrid conditions. Marcinko doesn't need to win the match; she simply needs to keep the sets competitive. A 6-4, 6-3 loss still cleanly covers the number.