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Tennis predictions & picks: Analyzing today's data to beat the odds [2/19/26]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Looking for Thursday's best tennis predictions and picks? Using automated data analysis we've locked in these tennis bets for February 19, 2026.
Today's best tennis predictions and picks have been identified using elite in-house data science practices that unearth mis-priced sportsbook odds, resulting in our highly profitable tennis best bets service.
Once again, we have an exciting array of predictions from tennis matches scheduled today, Thursday, February 19, 2026, and we've identified a number of compelling tennis betting opportunities across two different ATP Tour events - Rio de Janiero and Delray Beach.
While the public often struggles to find an edge in tennis, the Dimers models have identified three tennis bets with significant value today.
While these tennis picks can also be bet straight up, we've combined them into a tennis parlay targeting three specific games spread bets.
By combining these betting picks into a tennis parlay we've transformed high-confidence data into a ticket with +652 odds, and our spirits are sky high after nailing this +605 odds tennis parlay recently, as well as a number of tennis parlays at January's Australian Open.
Here's the breakdown of the best tennis bets we've used to craft our three-leg tennis parlay at +652 odds.
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RELATED: How we beat the odds using tennis data
Tennis predictions & picks - February 19
Leg 1: Tomas Martin Etcheverry -4.5 Games (+100)
Tournament: Rio Open (Rio de Janeiro)
Matchup: T. Etcheverry vs. V. Gaubas
Time: Feb 19, 2:30pm (ET)
We start our tennis bets on the clay courts of Rio, backing Argentine powerhouse Tomas Martin Etcheverry against the young qualifier Vilius Gaubas. Etcheverry's heavy topspin and baseline stamina make him a nightmare matchup on this surface. The market has priced a 4.5-game spread at even money (+100), undervaluing his ability to pull away in the later stages of sets.
Our model projects Etcheverry covering this line 54.4% of the time, creating a valuable 4.4% edge at positive odds.
The Reasoning: Gaubas has done well to reach this stage, but the step up in weight-of-shot against Etcheverry is significant. On clay, physical mismatches often lead to lopsided sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-2). Finding even money on an established clay-court specialist against a qualifier makes this one of our sharpest tennis picks of the afternoon.
Leg 2: Joao Fonseca -4.5 Games (+105)
Tournament: Rio Open (Rio de Janeiro)
Matchup: J. Fonseca vs. I. Buse
Time: Feb 19, 5:00pm (ET)
For our second tennis wager, we stay in Rio and back the hometown hero, Joao Fonseca. The Brazilian phenom feeds off the electric energy of the Rio crowd, and he faces Peru's Ignacio Buse in the evening session. We are again taking a 4.5-game spread, but this time getting a generous +105 return.
We assign a 52.7% probability to Fonseca covering the spread, offering a solid 3.9% edge.
The Reasoning: Fonseca’s aggressive ball-striking can rush opponents, especially when the crowd is heavily involved in every point. Buse will have to deal with intense pressure on his service games. Securing plus-money on a highly motivated home favorite to win by five games or more is a high-upside addition to any tennis parlay today.
Leg 3: Taylor Fritz -3.5 Games (-120)
Tournament: Delray Beach Open (Delray Beach)
Matchup: T. Fritz vs. R. Jodar
Time: Feb 19, 8:00pm (ET)
We close out this tennis betting ticket under the lights in Florida. Taylor Fritz, the top seed in Delray Beach, takes on young prospect Rafael Jodar. American hard courts are Fritz’s domain, and a spread of just -3.5 games feels remarkably low given his elite serve-plus-forehand combination.
Our simulation sees Fritz covering this number a massive 61.8% of the time, generating a towering 7.2% edge.
The Reasoning: A 3.5-game spread essentially only requires Fritz to break Jodar's serve once per set (e.g., 6-4, 6-4), assuming Fritz handles his own service games with his usual efficiency. The data strongly indicates that Fritz will dominate the shorter rallies, making this high-edge play the perfect anchor to safely bring home our tennis parlay.
Tennis predictions and picks for Thursday
Tennis bets for February 19
Leg 1: Etcheverry -4.5 (+100)
Leg 2: Fonseca -4.5 (+105)
Leg 3: Fritz -3.5 (-120)
Parlay odds: +652
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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