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Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Arthur Fils prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Etcheverry vs Fils predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry will take on Arthur Fils in the round of 16 at the ATP Madrid event on Tuesday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Arthur Fils as the most likely winner of the Etcheverry vs. Fils match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Etcheverry vs. Fils prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Etcheverry-Fils men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Fils a 73% chance of defeating Etcheverry at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Fils has a 68% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Fils (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Arthur Fils odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Etcheverry | Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +278 | -333 |
| First Set | +200 | -250 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-106) | -3.5 (-126) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Etcheverry vs. Fils picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Etcheverry | +278 |
| First Set | Fils | -120 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Tomas Etcheverry to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Etcheverry vs. Fils updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Arthur Fils is scheduled to start on Tuesday at 4:00 AM ET.
- Who: Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Arthur Fils
- Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:00 AM ET/1:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 16
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Arthur Fils, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat Tomas Etcheverry at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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