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Read Article Tommy Paul vs. Luciano Darderi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Paul vs Darderi predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Tommy Paul will face Luciano Darderi in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Sunday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Tommy Paul as the most likely winner of the Paul vs. Darderi match.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Paul vs. Darderi prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Paul-Darderi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Paul a 57% chance of defeating Darderi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Paul has a 55% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (-0.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Tommy Paul vs. Luciano Darderi odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Paul | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -126 | +112 |
| First Set | -139 | +110 |
| Game Spread | -0.5 (-120) | +0.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-122) | u22.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Paul vs. Darderi picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paul | -126 |
| First Set | Darderi | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Tommy Paul to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Paul vs. Darderi updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Tommy Paul and Luciano Darderi is scheduled to start on Sunday at 11:20 AM ET.
- Who: Tommy Paul vs. Luciano Darderi
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Approx. Time: 11:20 AM ET/8:20AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Tommy Paul, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Luciano Darderi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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