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Maple Leafs vs. Islanders prediction: Islanders favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs NY Islanders predictions for NHL Thursday.
The NY Islanders will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at UBS Arena on Thursday, beginning at 6:45 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Islanders as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Islanders, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Islanders a 63% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-106) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +245 | -275 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +245 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Islanders?
According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.
Our projections give Nylander a 42.4% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is a 9.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 42.4% |
| John Tavares | 41.5% |
| Matthew Knies | 33.5% |
| Easton Cowan | 21.1% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 19.2% |
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 32.2% |
| Anders Lee | 30.9% |
| Max Shabanov | 25.2% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 23.8% |
| Brayden Schenn | 21.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 9.8% |
| John Tavares | 9.1% |
| Matthew Knies | 6.6% |
| Easton Cowan | 3.8% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.6% |
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 6.7% |
| Anders Lee | 6.1% |
| Max Shabanov | 4.9% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 4.2% |
| Mathew Barzal | 3.9% |
Maple Leafs vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Islanders and Maple Leafs at UBS Arena is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. NY Islanders
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: UBS Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Islanders, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Thursday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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