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Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction: Vegas favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Vegas Golden Knights and Toronto mapleleafs will lock horns in the NHL at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Golden Knights a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Golden Knights a 54% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 58% chance of going over.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+190) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | o5.5 (-130) | u5.5 (+114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Golden Knights -1.5 | +190 |
| Moneyline | Golden Knights | -130 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -130 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights.
Our projections give Matthews a 43.3% chance of scoring a goal at T-Mobile Arena, while the star is a 9.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 43.3% |
| William Nylander | 33.4% |
| John Tavares | 25.7% |
| Bobby McMann | 25.6% |
| Matias Maccelli | 18.4% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 36.2% |
| Mark Stone | 31.5% |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 31.3% |
| Tomas Hertl | 31.1% |
| Mitch Marner | 24.8% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 9.3% |
| William Nylander | 6.0% |
| John Tavares | 4.9% |
| Bobby McMann | 4.4% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.6% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 7.3% |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 6.0% |
| Tomas Hertl | 6.0% |
| Mark Stone | 5.8% |
| Mitch Marner | 4.3% |
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Golden Knights, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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