2026 Final Four Predictions: Arizona is model's championship favorite, Illinois continues Cinderella run

The Madness of March has delivered all tournament long, and after three weekends of CBB betting and bracket busting, the 2026 NCAA Tournament is down to four teams and the story writes itself with two No.1 seeds facing off in Michigan vs. Arizona and a pair of longshot hopefuls in Connecticut and Dimers' pre-tournament longshot bet of Illinois.

The Final Four games are set for Saturday, April 4 in Indianapolis and the Dimers model is ready to roll for home stretch of the tournament. Here's every data-backed insight you need to know before Saturday's games tip off.

The Final Four matchups

Game 1: Illinois vs. Connecticut 

Time: 6:09 PM ET

The first semifinal is the tournament's biggest narrative collision.

Dimers gives Illinois a 57% win probability, making our pre-tournament darkhorse a decent favorite, but make no mistake, Connecticut is no soft draw.

The Huskies have the defensive infrastructure and tournament pedigree to expose Illinois in a low-scoring grind, just as they overcame a nearly 20-point deficit to take down the tournament's top-seeded Duke in the Elite Eight.

Illinois is favored at -1.5 and -130 on the moneyline and with an over/under of just 139.5, this game projects to be decided in the trenches.

Game 2: Michigan vs. Arizona

Time: 8:49 PM ET

This is the glamour game, billed as one of the greatest college basketball tournament matchups of all time on paper, and the numbers back it up.

A 157.5 over/under tells you both offenses are expected to show up, and Dimers' opening projected final score of 79-79 puts these teams deadlocked and potentially set for an overtime period to decide it.

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg is the top projected scorer of the entire Final Four field, and Arizona answers with a two-headed frontcourt attack in Brayden Burries and Koa Peat.

Dimers projects a razor-thin 52% to 48% win probability split in Michigan's favor, with a projected score that lands in overtime territory. The books have Michigan as a slight -1.5 favorite.

Dimers' underdog continues to bark

There is no bigger storyline for us at Dimers entering this Final Four than Illinois' run.

When the tournament bracket was set, Dimers pegged Illinois' championship probability at 3.8%, with fair odds of +2530, mirroring their opening market price of +2500.

That number now sits at +475, with Dimers' model lifting their win probability to 20.6%.

That is a seismic shift driven entirely by performance and sharp-sighted value. Freshman duo Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic have been the engine, combining to give Illinois one of the more dynamic young backcourt-frontcourt pairings left in the tournament.

Their offensive rebounding has been the quiet catalyst with second-chance points extending possessions in multiple close wins, and that margin has been the difference.

The question now is whether that story's final chapter ends in a trophy.

Winning six straight games against elite competition requires complete team basketball, and Connecticut's length and defensive discipline will be the toughest challenge Illinois has faced.

But bettors who got in at +2500 thanks to Dimers' pre-tournament picks are sitting on one of the great ticket-holds in recent tournament memory.

Updated March Madness championship odds

Arizona (41.4%, +175) enters as the tournament's new betting favorite after Duke's exit, with Michigan (31.9%, +180) nearly even with them in the market despite a lower model probability.

Our pre-tournament longshot pick of Illinois (20.6%, +475) is down from +2500, and Connecticut (6.1%, +650) remains live as a two-time champion in the past three years, that no one wants to play in a slow game.

Key players to watch in the Final Four

Yaxel Lendeborg — the Michigan forward is the highest-projected scorer remaining at 17.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists, and his ability to operate in pick-and-roll against Illinois' switching defense will determine the tempo of game two.

David Mirkovic - a physical mismatch problem projected for 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds. If he controls the glass against UConn's Tarris Reed (9.2 RPG), possessions will tilt in Illinois' favor.

Koa Peat - 6' 8" and 234 pounds and capable of taking over a game from multiple positions, projected for 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists as one of the best players on the floor.

Braylon Mullins - the hero who sent UConn to the Final Four with his dagger three projects for 1.6 three-pointers, second highest in the game.

Final thoughts

The Michigan-Arizona total of 157.5 is one of the highest in Final Four history, and the projected score landing right on that number is itself worth noting.

Dimers' model essentially sees this as a coin flip between two evenly matched offensive powerhouses

For the Illinois-UConn game, a 50% percent implied probability on the short spread suggests UConn, with tournament-proven coaching and the personnel to slow Illinois' tempo in a 139.5-point total game, is an "underdog" in name only against Dimer's pre-tournament darkhorse Illinois.

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