May 16, 2026
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Read Article Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows prediction: Hawks favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 11 matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows predictions for AFL Thursday.
AFL action continues on Thursday at 5:30 AM ET as the Adelaide Crows take on the Hawthorn Hawks at University of Tasmania Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Crows vs. Hawks game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Crows prediction: Who will win Round 11 game?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Crows and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 68% chance of defeating the Crows.
According to our model, the Hawks (-11.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 157.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Adelaide vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Crows | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +155 | -200 |
| Line (Spread) | +11.5 (-115) | -11.5 (-115) |
| Total | o157.5 (-115) | u157.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Crows vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -11.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -200 |
| Total | Under 157.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks -11.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Crows game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Hawks and Crows at University of Tasmania Stadium is scheduled to start at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: University of Tasmania Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Crows in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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