England vs. Argentina prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Semi-Final]
Get England vs Argentina predictions for World Cup 2026 Wednesday.
England will face Argentina in the semifinals of the World Cup 2026 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts England as the most likely winner of the England vs. Argentina game.
Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
England vs. Argentina prediction: Who will win and advance to the Final?
Our famous predictive model indicates a 36.9% chance of England winning, a 34.1% chance for Argentina, and a 29.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 61.8% chance of staying under, with a 55.1% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, England holds a 23.0% probability to win without conceding, with Argentina given a 21.2% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either England or Argentina at 71.0%.
A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.
Argentina vs. England odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| England | Argentina | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +186 | +213 | +190 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +160 | -163 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
England vs. Argentina picks and best bet
After going 5-for-5 on Spain-France picks last nights, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Argentina @ +213 via Novig
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -163 via Novig
- Win to Nil: Argentina @ +340 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: England or Argentina @ -240 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ -112 via FanDuel
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Argentina to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
England vs. Argentina: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| England 1-1 Argentina | 13.4% |
| England 1-0 Argentina | 12.4% |
| England 0-1 Argentina | 11.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 44.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 55.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
England vs. Argentina player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Wednesday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in England-Argentina:
England
- Harry Kane: 27.1% probability
- Jude Bellingham: 16.8% probability
- Anthony Gordon: 11.2% probability
- Morgan Rogers: 10.5% probability
- Declan Rice: 5.6% probability
Argentina
- Lionel Messi: 26.3% probability
- Julian Alvarez: 16.1% probability
- Giuliano Simeone: 10.5% probability
- Enzo Fernandez: 7.7% probability
- Alexis Allister: 6.1% probability
England vs. Argentina game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's FIFA World Cup action between England and Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: England vs. Argentina
- Date: Wednesday, July 15, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, England has a 36.9% win probability on Wednesday, Argentina has a 34.1% win probability, and there is a 29.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
