Diamondbacks vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Sunday.
MLB action continues on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET as the Arizona Diamondbacks lock horns with the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Rays will have Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.62 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Merrill Kelly (5-7, 5.71 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Rays as the most likely winner of the Diamondbacks vs. Rays game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Rays a 59.3% chance of beating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 59.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 54.5% chance of going over,.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays odds [6/28/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Moneyline | +158 | -184 |
| Total | o7.5 (-114) | u7.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Diamondbacks +1.5 | -140 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +158 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -114 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Diamondbacks to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Rays and Diamondbacks at Tropicana Field is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 59.3% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
