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Read Article Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova prediction, odds, picks for German Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Sabalenka vs Alexandrova predictions for German Open.
Aryna Sabalenka will take on Ekaterina Alexandrova in the round of 16 of the German Openon Wednesday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Aryna Sabalenka as the most likely winner of the Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova match.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Sabalenka-Alexandrova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Sabalenka an 86% chance of winning against Alexandrova at Berlin.
Additionally, Sabalenka has an 81% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alexandrova (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 19.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -699 | +600 |
| First Set | -500 | +350 |
| Game Spread | -5.5 (-110) | +5.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o19.5 (-110) | u19.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alexandrova | +600 |
| First Set | Alexandrova | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Ekaterina Alexandrova to win.
Although Alexandrova is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova updates and essential details
The German Open match between Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Tournament: Berlin, Germany Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 16
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Aryna Sabalenka, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat Ekaterina Alexandrova at Berlin.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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