Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 15 [2025]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 15 action at Raymond James Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 8:15PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Falcons vs. Bucs prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?

Since our Falcons-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Buccaneers a 68% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-19.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Falcons and Buccaneers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 44.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Falcons	Buccaneers
Spread	+4.5 (-105)	-4.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+200	-225
Total	o44.5 (-102)	u44.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Falcons +4.5	-105
Moneyline	Falcons	+200
Total	Over 44.5	-102

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 44.5 total points.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Buccaneers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Buccaneers.

Our projections give Robinson a 53.4% chance of scoring a TD at Raymond James Stadium, while the running back is a 13.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	53.4%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	36.2%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	27.5%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	21.7%
David Sills (WR)	18.7%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bucky Irving (RB)	38.2%
Mike Evans (WR)	37.2%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	33.4%
Chris Godwin (WR)	30.0%
Rachaad White (RB)	20.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	13.6%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	8.0%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	5.7%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	4.3%
David Sills (WR)	3.7%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Bucky Irving (RB)	8.8%
Mike Evans (WR)	8.5%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	7.4%
Chris Godwin (WR)	6.5%
Rachaad White (RB)	4.2%

Falcons vs Buccaneers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Kirk Cousins is projected for 216 passing yards, while the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is expected to throw for 225 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Kirk Cousins (ATL)	216
Baker Mayfield (TB)	225

Falcons rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bijan Robinson	78
Tyler Allgeier	31
Kirk Cousins	4

Buccaneers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bucky Irving	63
Baker Mayfield	22
Rachaad White	20

Falcons receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Kyle Pitts	60
Darnell Mooney	41
Bijan Robinson	40
David Sills	28
Dylan Drummond	23

Buccaneers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Emeka Egbuka	53
Mike Evans	47
Chris Godwin	45
Bucky Irving	22
Payne Durham	18

Falcons vs. Bucs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 15 matchup between the Buccaneers and Falcons at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

NFL Week 15 betting promos and codes

Make the most of Dimers' Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions by exploring the two exciting offers below.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets win or lose.

Conclusion

We predict the Buccaneers, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 15 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Buccaneers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.