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NFL Week 5: Best Player Prop Bet for Bills vs. Patriots in Prime Time
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
We're looking to bounce back and continue our dominant run of Prime Time Prop Bets on Sunday Night Football when the Patriots clash with the Bills.
After a disappointing miss on Brian Robinson Jr.’s rushing prop on Thursday, we are looking to bounce back and continue our dominant run of Prime Time Prop Bets. We're an impressive three out of four on our recent best bets - hitting on Jahmyr Gibbs (Receiving Yards), Kyler Murray (Rushing Yards), and Jordan Love (Rushing Yards) -and we fully expect the New England Patriots’ tight end, Austin Hooper, to get us back on track tonight.
The New England Patriots face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium as heavy underdogs against Josh Allen and co., with the Bills favored to win 29-21. Facing the league's best pass defense in a projected blowout, most bettors will look away from the Patriots’ receiving corps. However, this is precisely where we find our value: Austin Hooper Over 14.5 Receiving Yards.
Week 5 NFL Prime Time Prop Bet (Patriots at Bills)
Austin Hooper Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Our process began on the Dimers NFL Trends page, which delivered a staggering data point: Austin Hooper has recorded more than 14.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 appearances. This is a nearly 90% hit rate over a substantial sample size, providing a historical consistency that is hard to ignore, even against a tough Bills defense.
We then completed our due diligence on the Dimers NFL Player Projections page, which confirms the expected outcome. Hooper is projected for 18.6 Receiving Yards in this matchup. This projection is a 28% margin above the 14.5-yard prop line, which is strong validation for the Over.
Hooper stood out as the Prime Time Prop Bet to attack on Sunday.
While the Bills boast a formidable defense, their scheme tends to limit explosive plays downfield, forcing opponents to rely on short, reliable passes - the exact routes run by tight ends like Hooper. Looking at his recent 2025 game log, Hooper has already shown his ability to surpass this total comfortably:
- Week 2 at Dolphins: 38 Receiving Yards
- Week 3 vs. Steelers: 28 Receiving Yards
- Week 4 vs. Panthers: 24 Receiving Yards
The combination of Hooper’s near-perfect track record against this specific number, a strong statistical projection, and a game script that will likely force the Patriots into a conservative, possession-based passing game makes this our top bet.
The Austin Hooper Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-114) is the Prime Time Prop Bet that will get us back to winning ways and move our recent hot streak to four out of five.
NFL Prime Time Prop Bets in 2025
As mentioned above, these recent Prime Time NFL prop bets successfully hit on Jahmyr Gibbs' receiving yards, Kyler Murray's rushing yards, and Jordan Love's rushing yards, with the only miss coming earlier this week when Brian Robinson Jr. failed to hit his rushing yards line.
- Monday Night Football Week 3: Jahmyr Gibbs over 27.5 receiving yards
- Thursday Night Football Week 4: Kyler Murray over 28.5 rushing yards
- Sunday Night Football Week 4: Jordan Love over 5.5 rushing yards
- Monday Night Football Week 4: No suitable bet
- Thursday Night Football Week 5: Brian Robinson Jr. over 19,5 rushing yards
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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