Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/10/2026]
Get Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 7:15 PM ET as the Boston Red Sox lock horns with the New York Mets at Citi Field.
The Mets will have Nolan McLean (6-5, 3.73 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Sonny Gray (10-1, 2.61 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Mets as the most likely winner of the Red Sox vs. Mets game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Mets a 57.4% chance of defeating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 59.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.3% chance of going over,.
Red Sox vs. Mets odds [7/10/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+156) |
| Moneyline | +135 | -138 |
| Total | o7.5 (-104) | u7.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | novig+156 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | novig+135 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | polymarket-104 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Mets and Red Sox at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 57.4% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
