Buffalo vs. Toledo prediction: Why Toledo is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/6/2026]

Men's college basketball action continues on Friday at 7:00 PM ET as Buffalo faces off with the favored Toledo in men's college basketball action at Savage Arena.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Toledo as the most likely winner of the Buffalo vs. Toledo game.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Buffalo vs. Toledo prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NCAA basketball matchup between Buffalo and Toledo 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Toledo a 70% chance of beating Buffalo. Our predicted final score has Toledo winning 82-76.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Buffalo and Toledo each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 155.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.

Buffalo vs. Toledo odds

We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Buffalo	Toledo
Spread	+5.5 (-102)	-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+210	-235
Total	o155.5 (-110)	u155.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Buffalo vs. Toledo picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Buffalo +5.5	-102
Moneyline	Toledo	-235
Total	Over 155.5	-110

According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 155.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Buffalo vs. Toledo game-day updates and essential details

Friday's men's college basketball game between Toledo and Buffalo at Savage Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo vs. Toledo
• Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Savage Arena

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Conclusion

We predict Toledo, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Buffalo on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buffalo vs. Toledo insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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