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Reds vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Cincinnati Reds in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, starting at 1:10 PM ET.
Nick Martinez (0-1, 2.46 ERA) will be on the bump for the Rays, while the Reds have opted for Brandon Williamson (2-1, 4.36 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Rays as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Rays game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Rays a 55% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Rays odds [4/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-176) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Moneyline | +119 | -138 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Rays -1.5 | +150 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +119 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Rays and Reds at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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