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Read Article Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Thursday's MLB matchup [6/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Phillies will start Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA), while the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Mets-Phillies matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both the Mets and Phillies a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 50.5% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Phillies odds [6/18/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-188) | -1.5 (+155) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -122 |
| Total | o9.5 (-102) | u9.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -188 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +105 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Thursday, June 18, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Mets and Phillies on Thursday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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