Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Lions favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 4 matchup [4/2/2026]

AFL action continues on Thursday at 4:30 AM ET as the Collingwood Magpies take on the favored Brisbane Lions at The Gabba.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Lions game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Lions vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 4 game?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 71% chance of defeating the Magpies.

According to our model, the Magpies (+25.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Collingwood vs. Brisbane odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Magpies vs. Lions picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +25.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lions vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's Australian rules football action between the Lions and Magpies at The Gabba is scheduled to commence at 4:30 AM ET.

• Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Brisbane Lions
• Date: Thursday, April 2, 2026
• Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
• Venue: The Gabba

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Magpies vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.

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