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Cowboys vs. Lions prediction: Detroit favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 14, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions predictions for NFL Thursday.
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NFL Week 14 action continues on Thursday at 8:15PM ET as the Dallas Cowboys lock horns with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Lions game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Cowboys vs. Lions prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?
Since our Cowboys-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Cowboys and Lions 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 61% chance of beating the Cowboys in Week 14 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 29-25.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Cowboys and Lions each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 14 straight up picks.
Cowboys vs. Lions odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cowboys | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-102) | -3.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -186 |
| Total | o55.5 (-110) | u55.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys +3.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | +160 |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -108 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.
Cowboys vs. Lions TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Lions?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Cowboys vs. Lions.
Our projections give Gibbs a 65.3% chance of scoring a TD at Ford Field, while the running back is a 14.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 52.0% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 43.4% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 42.1% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 34.2% |
| KaVontae Turpin (WR) | 13.7% |
Detroit Lions
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 65.3% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 46.3% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 43.3% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 39.4% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 21.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 10.8% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 8.4% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 8.0% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 6.2% |
| KaVontae Turpin (WR) | 2.2% |
Detroit Lions
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 14.9% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 8.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 8.0% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 7.1% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 3.4% |
Cowboys vs Lions player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 14 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 281 passing yards, while the Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for 258 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 281 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 258 |
Cowboys rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 71 |
| Malik Davis | 14 |
| Dak Prescott | 12 |
Lions rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 88 |
| David Montgomery | 40 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 |
Cowboys receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 89 |
| George Pickens | 87 |
| Jake Ferguson | 42 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 20 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 19 |
Lions receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 71 |
| Jameson Williams | 66 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 38 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 26 |
| Ross Dwelley | 19 |
Cowboys vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 14 game between the Lions and Cowboys at Ford Field is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
- Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Ford Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Cowboys in Week 14 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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