Lions vs. Bengals prediction: Why Detroit is favored to win in NFL Week 5, 2025

The Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions will meet in Week 5 of the NFL season at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, with kickoff at 4:25PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Lions-Bengals game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Lions with a win probability of 78%, while the Bengals have 22%."

This gameday Lions vs. Bengals betting preview builds on my Lions vs. Bengals prediction that was published earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lions vs. Bengals predictions page.

Lions vs. Bengals Predictions

Since our Lions-Bengals predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Lions and Bengals 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 78% chance of defeating the Bengals in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 28-20.

According to our model, the Bengals (+9.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Lions vs. Bengals odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lions	Bengals
Spread	-9.5 (-120)	+9.5 (-102)
Moneyline	-590	+440
Total	o49.5 (-105)	u49.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Lions vs. Bengals picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Lions vs. Bengals matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Lions vs. Bengals TD scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Lions vs. Bengals?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score the first touchdown in Lions vs. Bengals.

Our projections give Gibbs a 15.2% chance of scoring the first TD at Paycor Stadium, while the Lions running back is a 62.7% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

Player	First TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	15.2%
David Montgomery (RB)	12.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	9.3%

Cincinnati Bengals

Player	First TD Probability
Chase Brown (RB)	10.0%
Ja'Marr Chase (WR)	7.5%
Tee Higgins (WR)	5.5%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	62.7%
David Montgomery (RB)	55.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	45.3%

Cincinnati Bengals

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Chase Brown (RB)	45.9%
Ja'Marr Chase (WR)	36.8%
Tee Higgins (WR)	28.8%

Lions vs Bengals player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Bengals. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Lions vs. Bengals quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected to throw for more yards than the Bengals' Jake Browning.

Lions rushing

Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Craig Reynolds are projected to be the leading rushers for the Lions.

Player	Position
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB
David Montgomery	RB
Craig Reynolds	RB

Bengals rushing

Chase Brown, Jake Browning and Ja'Marr Chase are expected to lead the Bengals in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Chase Brown	RB
Jake Browning	QB
Ja'Marr Chase	WR

Lions receiving

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Kalif Raymond are projected to top the receiving yards for the Lions.

Player	Position
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR
Jameson Williams	WR
Sam LaPorta	TE
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB
Kalif Raymond	WR

Bengals receiving

Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown are projected to lead the Bengals in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Ja'Marr Chase	WR
Tee Higgins	WR
Noah Fant	TE
Mike Gesicki	TE
Chase Brown	RB

Lions vs. Bengals game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 5 game between the Bengals and Lions at Paycor Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Sunday's Lions vs. Bengals matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Lions vs. Bengals picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Bengals in Week 5 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Bengals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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