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Read Article Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers prediction: Why Bombers are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 11 matchup [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers predictions for AFL Friday.
The Richmond Tigers and Essendon Bombers will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 5:45 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Bombers as the most likely winner of the Bombers vs. Tigers game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Bombers prediction: Who will win Round 11 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Bombers and Tigers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Bombers a 67% chance of defeating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Tigers (+14.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Essendon vs. Richmond odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bombers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -250 | +195 |
| Line (Spread) | -14.5 (-115) | +14.5 (-115) |
| Total | o166.5 (-115) | u166.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bombers vs. Tigers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tigers +14.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Tigers | +195 |
| Total | Under 166.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigers to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Bombers game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Tigers and Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:45 AM ET.
- Who: Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Time: 5:45 AM ET/2:45AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Bombers, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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