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Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Lions favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 10 matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Brisbane Lions will square off with the Geelong Cats in Australian Football League (AFL) action at The Gabba on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Lions game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 10 game?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Cats and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions a 71% chance of defeating the Cats.
According to our model, the Lions (-14.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 185.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Geelong vs. Brisbane odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +175 | -227 |
| Line (Spread) | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-115) |
| Total | o185.5 (-115) | u185.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions -14.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Lions | -227 |
| Total | Under 185.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Lions and Cats at The Gabba is scheduled to begin at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Cats in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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