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Read Article Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Lions favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 10 matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Thursday.
AFL action continues on Thursday at 5:30 AM ET as the Geelong Cats square off with the Brisbane Lions at The Gabba.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Lions game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 10 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL game between the Cats and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 70% chance of defeating the Cats.
According to our model, the Lions (-10.5) have a 60% chance of covering the spread, while the 182.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Geelong vs. Brisbane odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +140 | -179 |
| Line (Spread) | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-115) |
| Total | o182.5 (-115) | u182.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions -10.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Lions | -179 |
| Total | Under 182.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football action between the Lions and Cats at The Gabba is scheduled to begin at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Cats in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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