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Read Article Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Why Cats are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 12 matchup [5/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Friday.
The Carlton Blues and Geelong Cats will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 5:40 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Cats as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Blues game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 12 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL game between the Cats and Blues, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cats a 72% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+26.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Geelong vs. Carlton odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -455 | +320 |
| Line (Spread) | -26.5 (-115) | +26.5 (-115) |
| Total | o178.5 (-115) | u178.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Blues +26.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +320 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +26.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Blues and Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Friday, May 29, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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