Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Hawks favored to win Monday's AFL Round 4 matchup [4/6/2026]

The Hawthorn Hawks will take on the Geelong Cats in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, commencing at 1:15 AM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Hawks game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Hawks vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 4 game?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's AFL matchup between the Cats and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 61% chance of beating the Cats.

According to our model, the Hawks (-6.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 186.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Geelong vs. Hawthorn odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cats vs. Hawks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: