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Read Article Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 10 matchup [5/16/2026]
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Melbourne Demons will take on the favored Hawthorn Hawks in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 2:15 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Demons game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Demons vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 10 game?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Hawks and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Hawks a 63% chance of beating the Demons.
According to our model, the Demons (+14.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 186.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Hawthorn vs. Melbourne odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Demons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -244 | +195 |
| Line (Spread) | -14.5 (-115) | +14.5 (-115) |
| Total | o186.5 (-115) | u186.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Demons picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Demons +14.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Demons | +195 |
| Total | Under 186.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Demons to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Demons vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Demons and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 2:15 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons
- Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Time: 2:15 AM ET/11:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Demons in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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