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Here's how Kalshi's Seahawks-Patriots markets stack up to our latest Super Bowl LX predictions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Pat Sharyon, Content Writer
Reviewed by Mac Douglass
As we approach Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium, the collision between professional "sharp" modeling and public sentiment has never been more visible. Heading into Friday evening, we’ve run 10,000 new simulations of the Seahawks-Patriots matchup. For the first time, we're comparing our results side-by-side with the trading prices available on Kalshi.
While sportsbooks set lines to balance their books, Kalshi prices represent the "wisdom of the crowd," where every cent in a contract price equals a percentage point of probability. Let's get into where the simulations and the markets agree—and where they are miles apart, opening the door for some potentially lucrative trading opportunities.
Note: All data, projections, and Kalshi contract prices are up to date as of 10:00 PM E.T. on Friday, February 6th, 2026, but are subject to change as more volume enters the market.
1. The Moneyline & Spread: A Tug-of-War
Our Dimers model sees a competitive game with the Seattle Seahawks as the statistical favorites, but Kalshi traders are significantly more aggressive on a Seattle victory.
| Market Metric | Dimers Model (Math) | Kalshi Price (Market) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks Win % | 62% | 69% ($0.69) | +7% (Market) |
| Patriots Win % | 38% | 33% ($0.33) | -5% (Market) |
| Predicted Score | 25 (Sea) : 21 (NE) | N/A | — |
The Sharp Angle: Despite Seattle's higher win probability, our model identifies the Patriots +4.5 as a "Best Bet" with a 60% probability. Kalshi traders seem to be fading New England entirely, creating a potential value gap for those who believe in a one-score game.
2. QB Milestones: Darnold vs. Maye
The quarterback matchup features veteran Sam Darnold against rookie sensation Drake Maye. The market and the math show a surprising amount of alignment here, specifically regarding their statistical floors.
- The Yardage Floor: Dimers projects Darnold for 225 yards and Maye for 231. Kalshi's market for 175+ Passing Yards is priced at 83% for Darnold and 78% for Maye, confirming high confidence that both will be productive through the air.
- The TD Market: Kalshi traders are slightly higher on a Darnold passing TD (86%) than a Maye passing TD (80%), aligning with our projection of a 25-point output for Seattle.
3. The "Walker Premium" in Touchdown Props
This is where the data gets truly interesting. Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III is the focal point of both the math and the market, but the public is pricing him like a sure thing.
Anytime Touchdown (ATTD)
Our model identifies Kenneth Walker III as the most likely scorer in Super Bowl LX at 53.7%. However, on Kalshi, his contract price is $0.63—implying a massive 63% chance of scoring.
First Touchdown Scorer
The discrepancy is even wider for the game’s first score. While our model gives Walker a 14.3% chance, Kalshi traders have pushed his probability to 21%. This suggests the public is heavily betting on a fast start from Seattle's ground game.
4. The Rhamondre Stevenson Value Play
While the spotlight is on Seattle, our data suggests the market might be sleeping on New England's Rhamondre Stevenson, particularly in the passing game:
- Receiving Yards: Dimers projects Stevenson for 27 receiving yards. Kalshi traders are 81% confident he reaches at least 10 yards.
- Receptions: The market prices Stevenson for 1+ Reception at an 89% probability. This aligns with our view of him as a vital safety valve for Drake Maye under Super Bowl pressure.
How to Get a $10 Seahawks-Patriots Bonus:
If you haven't signed up for Kalshi previously, there's some more value to be found with the $10 bonus you'll unlock if you sign up with our referral code, "DIMERS".
Open the Kalshi app or visit Kalshi.com.
Enter the Kalshi promo code DIMERS on the sign-up form.
Complete verification and fund your account.
Trade 10 event contracts to trigger your $10 Kalshi bonus.
Final Summary
If you are following the market sentiment on Kalshi, the play is Seahawks ML and Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD. However, the Dimers Data suggests the "smarter" play may be taking the Patriots +4.5 and looking at Stevenson's receiving overs, as the model expects a much closer game than the public is currently pricing in.
Always gamble responsibly. For real-time updates to these projections and the latest edge, check our NFL Bet Hub.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Mac Douglass through our fact-checking process.
Pat Sharyon is an experienced writer who specializes in NFL and college football while also covering tennis, MLB, golf and a variety of international sports. Hailing originally from Boston, Massachusetts, Pat has a degree in linguistics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
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