Home Run Picks and Parlay Today [July 1, 2026]

1. Matt Olson (Braves) to hit a home run (+310)

Game: Braves vs. Cardinals

Time: 7:15 PM ET

First up in our home run targets is Matt Olson when the Braves host the Cardinals in Truist Park where the forecast calls for high temps and some very light wind.

Olson checks in with an 18.4% home run probability from the Dimers model, tied for the highest of any player on the night slate excluding the Dodgers. Olson has slowed down a bit from his torrid early-season pace, but he's still on track for more HR than his past two seasons with 20 to his name so far.

He'll face Cardinals RHP Michael McGreevy in this one, who's given up 8 HR to lefties in 56.0 IP this year and was tagged for at least 1 HR in 6 of his last 8 starts.

Olson is built for his home stadium where he'd have as many as 24 dingers adjusted for park factors.

2. Jackson Chourio (Brewers) to hit a home run (+360)

Game: Brewers vs. Reds

Time: 8:10 PM ET

We move to American Family Field as we look for one of June's hottest HR hitters to carry his form over into July.

Chourio smacked 10 home runs last month after he hit just 2 in May, which was his season debut after missing the first full month of the season, and gets a 13.4% probability to hit a home run from our model tonight.

He gets a matchup with the Reds' Andrew Abbott, who gave up 3 HR in his last start, his fourth straight with at least 1 HR allowed and he's given up at least one in 7 of his past 8 with two multi-HR games in that span.

The lefty has been hit hard by righthanders this year and Chourio has made short work of the lefty pitchers he's faced with 4 HR and a .966 OPS in 57 at bats.

3. Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+350)

Game: Marlins vs. Rockies

Time: 8:40 PM ET

To round it out, we're heading to Coors Field against our model's worst-projected pitcher on the slate, Kyle Freeland of the Rockies.

We're looking for a Kyle on Kyle crime with Marlins lefty Kyle Stowers to go yard, our top probability in this game at 18.4%, just edging out June HR leader Hunter Goodman at 17.8%.

Stowers has 8 HR this year, increasing his tally each month from April to June, while Freeland has given up 16 HR this year, including 5 games with multiple HR.

The lefty-lefty matchup here isn't the best as Stowers prefers righties and Freeland hasn't faced many lefties this year, but the lofty confines of Coors combined with our top HR probability in the game against a vulnerable pitcher is enough to put Stowers on the radar.

MLB home run parlay and round robin

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +8387 on FanDuel Sportsbook, returning $838.70 off a $10 bet.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.