Pirates vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [7/1/2026]
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
Zack Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA) will start for the Phillies, while the Pirates are going with Paul Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Phillies as the most likely winner of the Pirates vs. Phillies game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 56.8% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54.2% chance of going over,.
Pirates vs. Phillies odds [7/1/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-179) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | o8 (-113) | u8 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Phillies -1.5 | +160 |
| Moneyline | Phillies | -142 |
| Total | Over 8 | -113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Phillies and Pirates at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 56.8% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
