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Read Article Astros vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [5/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Tuesday.
MLB action continues on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET as the Houston Astros square off with the Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
Zebby Matthews (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will start for the Twins, while the Astros have opted for Jason Alexander (0-0, 14.21 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Twins as the most likely winner of the Astros vs. Twins game.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Twins a 55% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Twins odds [5/19/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-176) | -1.5 (+155) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -138 |
| Total | o8.5 (-114) | u8.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Twins -1.5 | +155 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +120 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -114 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Twins and Astros at Target Field is scheduled to start at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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