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Read Article Iowa vs. Illinois prediction: Why Illinois is favored to win men's March Madness Elite Eight matchup [3/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Iowa vs Illinois predictions for college basketball Saturday.
Illinois and Iowa are scheduled to meet in March Madness Elite Eight action at Toyota Center on Saturday, with tipoff at 6:09 PM ET.
For this NCAA Tournament clash, Illinois—the most efficient offense in college basketball history according to KenPom— come up against Iowa, a Ben McCollum team forcing plenty of turnovers.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Illinois as the most likely winner of the Iowa vs. Illinois game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Iowa vs. Illinois prediction: Who will win and advance to the Final Four?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NCAAM Tournament matchup between Iowa and Illinois, forming part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Illinois an 81% chance of defeating Iowa. Our predicted final score has Illinois winning 75-66.
According to our model, Illinois (-6.5) has a 62% chance of covering the spread, while the 138.5-point over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Iowa vs. Illinois odds
We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | +270 | -325 |
| Total | o138.5 (-112) | u138.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Iowa vs. Illinois picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois -6.5 | -118 |
| Moneyline | Illinois | -325 |
| Total | Over 138.5 | -112 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Illinois -6.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Iowa vs. Illinois game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's men's college basketball game between Illinois and Iowa at Toyota Center is scheduled to begin at 6:09 PM ET.
- Who: Iowa vs. Illinois
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Time: 6:09 PM ET/3:09PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
- March Madness stage: Elite Eight
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Conclusion
We predict Illinois, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Iowa this men's March Madness Elite Eight matchup.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Iowa vs. Illinois insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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