Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025

NFL Week 11 action continues on Sunday at 4:25PM ET as the Kansas City Chiefs lock horns with the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chiefs vs. Broncos game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Chiefs-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 66% chance of beating the Broncos in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 24-20.

According to our model, the Chiefs (-3.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Chiefs vs. Broncos odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chiefs	Broncos
Spread	-3.5 (-120)	+3.5 (+100)
Moneyline	-218	+184
Total	o44.5 (-110)	u44.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Chiefs vs. Broncos picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chiefs -3.5	-120
Moneyline	Broncos	+184
Total	Under 44.5	-105

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs -3.5 at the spread.

Chiefs vs. Broncos TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Broncos?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Kareem Hunt is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chiefs vs. Broncos.

Our projections give Hunt a 46.2% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is an 11.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	46.2%
Rashee Rice (WR)	43.7%
Travis Kelce (TE)	30.2%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	28.0%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	20.4%

Denver Broncos

Player	Anytime TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	39.1%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	31.7%
Troy Franklin (WR)	29.1%
Marvin Mims (WR)	20.5%
Evan Engram (TE)	20.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Kareem Hunt (RB)	11.0%
Rashee Rice (WR)	10.2%
Travis Kelce (TE)	6.4%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	5.8%
Patrick Mahomes (QB)	4.0%

Denver Broncos

Player	First TD Probability
RJ Harvey (RB)	8.5%
Courtland Sutton (WR)	6.5%
Troy Franklin (WR)	5.9%
Marvin Mims (WR)	3.9%
Evan Engram (TE)	3.9%

Chiefs vs Broncos player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 265 passing yards, while the Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 228 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	265
Bo Nix (DEN)	228

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Kareem Hunt	45
Patrick Mahomes	26
Brashard Smith	10

Broncos rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
RJ Harvey	47
Bo Nix	25
Jaleel McLaughlin	17

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	78
Xavier Worthy	45
Travis Kelce	45
Hollywood Brown	28
JuJu Smith-Schuster	15

Broncos receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Courtland Sutton	54
Troy Franklin	48
Evan Engram	31
Marvin Mims	29
RJ Harvey	20

Chiefs vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 action between the Broncos and Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to start at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Broncos in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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