Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction: Kansas City favored to win MNF Week 5, 2025

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 5 action at EverBank Stadium on Monday, starting at 8:15PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Chiefs as the most likely winner of today's game.

This gameday Chiefs vs. Jaguars betting preview builds on my Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction that was posted earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions page.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Predictions

Since our Chiefs-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Jaguars 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Chiefs a 62% chance of beating the Jaguars in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 24-21.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Chiefs and Jaguars each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 5 straight up picks.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chiefs	Jaguars
Spread	-3.5 (-104)	+3.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-180	+165
Total	o45.5 (-110)	u45.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Jaguars?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Jacksonville's Travis Etienne is most likely to score the first TD in Chiefs vs. Jaguars.

Our projections give Etienne a 9.8% chance of getting in for six first at EverBank Stadium, while the Jaguars running back is a 39.4% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Xavier Worthy (WR)	8.4%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	6.8%
Travis Kelce (TE)	6.7%

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	First TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	9.8%
Brian Thomas (WR)	7.4%
Travis Hunter (WR)	4.8%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Xavier Worthy (WR)	35.9%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	30.3%
Travis Kelce (TE)	30.0%

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Travis Etienne (RB)	39.4%
Brian Thomas (WR)	31.7%
Travis Hunter (WR)	21.7%

Chiefs vs Jaguars player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Jaguars. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 5 games.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to throw for more yards than the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence.

Chiefs rushing

Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Patrick Mahomes are projected to be the leading rushers for the Chiefs.

Player	Position
Isiah Pacheco	RB
Kareem Hunt	RB
Patrick Mahomes	QB

Jaguars rushing

Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten and Trevor Lawrence are expected to lead the Jaguars in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Travis Etienne	RB
Bhayshul Tuten	RB
Trevor Lawrence	QB

Chiefs receiving

Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton are projected to top the receiving yards for the Chiefs.

Player	Position
Xavier Worthy	WR
Hollywood Brown	WR
Travis Kelce	TE
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR
Tyquan Thornton	WR

Jaguars receiving

Brian Thomas, Brenton Strange, Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown and Parker Washington are projected to lead the Jaguars in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Brian Thomas	WR
Brenton Strange	TE
Travis Hunter	WR
Dyami Brown	WR
Parker Washington	WR

Chiefs vs. Jaguars game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 5 action between the Jaguars and Chiefs at EverBank Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

Dimers' full preview of this week's Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 5 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Jaguars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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