Aces vs. Dream prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [5/17/2026]

The Atlanta Dream will take on the Las Vegas Aces in WNBA action at State Farm Arena on Sunday, commencing at 1:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Dream game.

The Dream, with star players like Allisha Gray, Angel Reese and Jordin Canada, will face off against the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA game between the Aces and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Aces a 66% chance of beating the Dream.

According to our model, the Aces (-3.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 171.5 points has a 60% chance of staying under.

Aces vs. Dream odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Dream
Spread	-3.5 (-106)	+3.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-160	+136
Total	o171.5 (-110)	u171.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Dream picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Aces -3.5	-106
Moneyline	Aces	-160
Total	Under 171.5	-108

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 171.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Dream player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Aces vs. Dream game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 24 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	24	9	3	1	49
Jackie Young	16	4	5	1	33
Chennedy Carter	13	2	2	0	22
Chelsea Gray	9	3	6	1	27
Jewell Loyd	9	3	1	2	18

Dream prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	18	5	3	2	33
Angel Reese	15	15	3	0	44
Jordin Canada	12	3	6	1	29
Naz Hillmon	11	9	3	1	30
Te-Hina Paopao	9	2	3	2	21

Aces vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's action between the Dream and Aces at State Farm Arena is scheduled to begin at 1:30 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
• Time: 1:30 PM ET/10:30AM PT
• Venue: State Farm Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Dream in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.