Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Why Los Angeles is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [6/13/2026]

WNBA action continues on Saturday at 10:00 PM ET as the Los Angeles Sparks take on the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Sparks as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, powered by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Sparks, featuring Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Sparks and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Sparks a 56.9% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Sparks (-1.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 171.5-point over/under has a 58.4% chance of staying under,.

Sparks vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sparks	Mercury
Spread	-1.5 (-110)	+1.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-120	+105
Total	o171.5 (-112)	u171.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sparks vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sparks -1.5	-110
Moneyline	Sparks	-120
Total	Under 171.5	-105

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 171.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sparks vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Sparks vs. Mercury WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 20 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kelsey Plum is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.9% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Plum	20	3	6	2	38
Nneka Ogwumike	18	8	2	2	35
Dearica Hamby	15	8	3	0	33
Ariel Atkins	13	3	3	1	28
Rae Burrell	10	3	2	1	21

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	17	3	2	2	27
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	9	0	47
DeWanna Bonner	11	5	1	1	24
M. Akoa-Makani	10	3	4	2	23
Natasha Mack	8	8	1	0	27

Sparks vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Mercury and Sparks at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, June 13, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Sparks, with a 56.9% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.