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UMass vs. Toledo prediction: Why Toledo is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get UMass vs Toledo predictions for college basketball Friday.
Toledo and UMass will lock horns in men's college basketball action at Rocket Arena on Friday, with tipoff at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Toledo as the most likely winner of the UMass vs. Toledo game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
UMass vs. Toledo prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NCAA basketball matchup between UMass and Toledo 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Toledo a 58% chance of defeating Massachusetts. Our predicted final score has Toledo winning 79-76.
According to our model, Massachusetts (+2.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 157.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
UMass vs. Toledo odds
We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | UMass | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +126 | -145 |
| Total | o157.5 (-115) | u157.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
UMass vs. Toledo picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Massachusetts +2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Toledo | -145 |
| Total | Under 157.5 | -105 |
According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Massachusetts +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
UMass vs. Toledo game-day updates and essential details
Friday's men's college basketball action between Toledo and UMass at Rocket Arena is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Massachusetts vs. Toledo
- Date: Friday, March 13, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Rocket Arena
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Conclusion
We predict Toledo, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Massachusetts on Friday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Massachusetts vs. Toledo insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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