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Essendon Bombers vs. Melbourne Demons prediction: Why Demons are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 5 matchup [4/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons predictions for AFL Friday.
AFL action continues on Friday at 11:15 PM ET as the favored Melbourne Demons take on the Essendon Bombers at Adelaide Oval.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Demons as the most likely winner of the Demons vs. Bombers game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Demons prediction: Who will win Round 5 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's AFL matchup between the Demons and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Demons a 78% chance of defeating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Bombers (+27.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 180.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Melbourne vs. Essendon odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Demons | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -417 | +310 |
| Line (Spread) | -27.5 (-115) | +27.5 (-115) |
| Total | o180.5 (-115) | u180.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Demons vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bombers +27.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Bombers | +310 |
| Total | Under 180.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bombers +27.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Demons game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football action between the Bombers and Demons at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 11:15 PM ET.
- Who: Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Friday, April 10, 2026
- Time: 11:15 PM ET/8:15PM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Demons, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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